More thoughts on people based entirely on metagaming since I cant talk to people:
Tonga reps - Colleen, Erinn, Kim, Natalie, Jenna, Hunter, DDanielle
That's a majority. I really understand that not all of these people were or are together, and the Malaysia rep numbers may end up being similar (Namibia is so under represented
) but the fact that these people all played this series' first season together, and almost all played AS1 together makes it something to at least be wary of.
DDanielle is pretty close to me and Lex and I don't think she would really try to use the Tonga connection (because she has far more connections to count on than a 2 year old one thats very far behind her), and Jenna I would like to think would be with us (but we haven't talked yet this game
so I can't bet on that) and I know she was less of a Kim fan than Kim was a Jenna fan.
But then there's Kim, Colleen, Hunter, Erinn and Natalie. Natalie is a controlling bitch and seems to have made herself a target, but her ONLY game in the series (as far as I know?) was Tonga. She doesnt play all that often and Tonga is still a big game for her. Erinn and Natalie are buddies and while Erinn has replayed, she's never really fell into any other big groups. She's more of an outsider in this series, especially coming off of a hiatus and a full year after the flirt card got burned hard. Ditto the outsider via hiatus thing for Natalie. Their relationships with people have been in stasis.
Hunter never knows what the hell he's doing and will always fall into the wrong alliance and stay loyal or fall into the right one and betray them. He's like a ore mature, likable version of Bryan. He has strong relationships with Jenna and with Erinn and with Colleen and I know he's had this do-right-by-Colleen thing going since Tonga. Hunter always has a lot of guilt. I still use betraying my genuine F2 with him in CYS AS a year ago to guilt him, and it WORKS. Even though every other game before that we played together, one of us was taken out byy circumstance or I betrayed him. I betrayed him a lot. He owes me nothing. But he still feels guilty about such an insignificant thing. I would bet money on him having a similar relationship with Colleen right now. Only OH NO LEX AND BRETT has the curse of being a final 2 duo while ERIN AND BELLA always fail but are just as tight, if not tighter, and honestly quite a bit more determined. I've been to the final 2 with Lex and it was nice. I'd love to do it again but if not, I am still damned proud of that first time.
Colleen and Cashley havent managed that. So while they seem like the lesser threats, they are just that much more determined.
But I'll bet you anything Hunter will take a bullet for Colleen who would toss him under a train based on an alliance agreement technicality, while if I try to throw Hunter a bone he'll bite my arm off thinking its poison.
Colleen and Kim are super tight. If people don't realize, they are fucking blind. Kim and Colleen were tight in Tonga. They've hosted together, they've been expelled for cheating in Kakadu together, they have skype sessions every night. They are together. And best pals.
I'm not sure when Lex decided we were a 4 with Kim and Danielle. I know Kim wanted it, but the thing is I feel like Curtis actually planned to HONOR it. No Lex. Just no. Remember what we did to Kim? I remember what we did to Kim. And I still say she had it coming and while I didnt handle it the best there is little to be bitter over since I only did it in retaliation to her own planned betrayal... but our dear Kimberly is bitter or at least will not seriously willingly go into the jury with both of us around. Just no. Not here. Not together. Not this game and NOT while she has equally bitter best pal and head bitch Colleen around.
Austin loves Colleen, too. Since they were the last ones left after we mutilated their alliance in AS1 they wound up with quite the little attachment and I see no reason why they would break that. Austin also loves Kim. Austin's never going to be on top in that group, but I'm not sure he would see it.
Lex wants to turn everyone on Natalie, and I suppose as long as its not one of us that's fine. But we're not the ones in control here, bud. We're the underdogs again. Only we never look like it. But look around... we are so far on the outs of this group we might as well be our own tribe.
We might get them to pick each other off a bit, but we're still pretty fucked if they ever decide to use their heads. Thankfully, they didnt use their heads in AS1, and no one ever changes.
Of course, this is all based entirely off of 3 brief convos with Lex and prior knowledge. For all I know everything is different. But there is literally no evidence against any of what I've just posted.
As for what to do about it.... I really have no idea minus survive to a swap then flip hard, taking out Natalie if we have to go to TC, which would be acceptable because Natalie is as trustworthy as,... I'm out of metaphors. She's just a snake. But really, shes the Bryan here. Great target and not that likable, but not a lot of power, easily turned against and a potential weapon to turn onto others.
In theory, CANDICE should be the one to go. While the rivalry with Parvati is cute Parvati gains a new rivalry or goal every time she has a break between digging graves and finding ways to make people call themselves idiots without realizing it. (Suddenly Ublazrob sounds so much more badass than my usual estimation). She'll have other targets and other people will target her. I don't think the rivalry is heated enough to keep around for the sake of balancing sides and doing Candy in might win some favor from her.
On the other hand, Michelle and Kim/Colleen are an EXTREMELY heated rivalry and while I think MichT would be willing to let go in favor of being one person closer to the finals, the other two would NEVER fold on their heated for her, so letting AS1 alliance nexus Colleen last a while and only crppling her leading into a swap/merge means having people to side with against her. And I think we could get the votes against Candice if we needed to. Maybe. Or maybe she seems like too much of a bitch to kill. I don't know. Making a move on Colleen directly only causes alliances to scatter, but regroup in newer and harder to kill ways. Killing Candice just means we have to endure some fantastically cliched speech about us killing the baddest bitch out of fear and her immentent return and boom toasted. Possibly a drama thread or two and when she "shockingly" loses an RI match we'll all have to read her prejury posts about the best being the ones to go early and the merge being a bunch of undeserving ametuers. *insert fierce meangirls gif*
It'll be a hard blow but I think we could take that.
At the same time, admittedly I haven't talked to enough people yet to know if I have the pecking order right. Natalie first might be the best option, because she's the kind of cochroach that's a real pain to kill if you let it fester too long. It's about numbers and who we can swing and how we can swng them, and admittedly we aren't in the best position to decide targets.
But we have to be choosy. Because if we don't sell targets and sell the right targets, we ARE the targets. We aren't in control here. Numbers wise we have nothing. If I were to ask Lex right now how many votes we have on our side right now, it's probably 1 less than whatever number he gives me. We don't have a majority alliance and I dont think we will until a swap... if ever.
But what we do have is wits and hopefully enough of them. And we just have to hope people haven't changed and are still the idiots that let us get to the end the first time around.